Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryParker
130K ←118
2.89ERA ←3.23
1.17WHIP ←1.22
8–17W ←6–14
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryParker
72K →74
1.96ERA ←2.21
0.96WHIP ←1.07
7W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Parker Messick
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.23, 0.87 below league — production is earned
Chase Burns: 130 K / 2.89 ERA. Parker Messick: 118 K / 3.23 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).