week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Parker Messick
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.15 is 0.59 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.15WHIP 1.16W 0–0SV 0
Messick is a sell-high — the ERA leans on BABIP-against luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.6%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.2% career norm
- Strikeout %25.8%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~25.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.15 is 0.59 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
501 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
501 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
747 / 200 TBF
xERA3.15
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —
747 / 200 TBF
ERA2.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
186.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
747 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
747 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.274
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
501 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
747 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
747 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
2948 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→25.8%signal0 K — K% 25.8% (signal) tempered to career ~25.6% → projected 25.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.15signal3.15 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.15 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.16 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 3.15 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.