week 10
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Parker Messick
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Messick is a buy — skill metrics are elite and stable.
His expected ERA is 3.23 — nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to carry weight. The building blocks are even better: a 27.2% strikeout rate versus 22% league average, a walk rate slightly below average, and a barrel rate allowed of 5.1% that is nearly three points below league (stabilized at 176 batted balls). That xERA has been stepping down across the sample, meaning his performance is not just good but improving. The actual ERA may not match yet, but the skill is there and grounded. Buy.
Buy
high0.86
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.23, 0.87 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL176 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL176 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL272 / 200 TBF
xERA3.23
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.87trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL272 / 200 TBF
ERA2.21
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.89too early to trust
NOISE69.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL272 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL272 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017too early to trust
NOISE176 / 800 BIP