Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryJoe
130K →134
2.89ERA ←3.07
1.17WHIP →1.09
8–17W ←4–10
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryJoe
72K →79
1.96ERA ←3.20
0.96WHIP ←0.97
7W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Joe Ryan
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.07)
Chase Burns: 130 K / 2.89 ERA. Joe Ryan: 134 K / 3.07 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).