287 PA · week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Esmerlyn Valdez
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free skill 0.332 is 0.036 below the surface, regression coming; strikeout rate 38% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.328 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.74 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Valdez is a sell-high — his stat line is racing ahead of his bat.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.328 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.332 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 38% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
136 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %49.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
136 / 50 BBE
Barrel %19.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.9%vs his norm —
136 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
287 / 160 PA
wOBA.368
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —
287 / 200 PA
Strikeout %37.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.6%vs his norm —
287 / 60 PA
Walk %14.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
287 / 120 PA
BABIP.328
lg avg .295 ▲+.033vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
136 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
287 / 50 PA
Chase %21.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
287 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 19.9%→17.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 19.9% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 17.5%.
BABIP 0.328→0.247 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.328 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.200) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 6 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.