MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mason Montgomery
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Mason Montgomery

PIT·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.57, 1.53 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.57WHIP 1.13W 0–0SV 0

Montgomery is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and stable.

His expected ERA is 2.57, a run and a half below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The strikeouts are driving it: he fans 37.9% of hitters against a league rate of 22%, and his swinging-strike rate of 16.3% is well above the 11% league mark. His fastball is sitting at 98.4 mph, and it has been climbing as the season goes. The contact he allows backs it up — a .250 expected wOBA allowed, 65 points below league. His walk rate is a touch high at 9.5%, the one soft spot. But the strikeout skill is real and it shows no sign of fading. Buy. With 6 K and a 2.57 ERA ROS, the strikeout skill is a genuine asset — acquire now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %37.9%—+5.8% ▲vs his ~32.1% career norm
  • Walk %9.5%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~12.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.57, 1.53 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
127 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
believable since Jun 77.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
127 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.250
.250*
lg avg .315 ▼−.065vs his norm —
243 / 200 TBF
xERA2.57
2.57*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.53vs his norm —
243 / 200 TBF
ERA2.87
2.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %37.9%
norm37.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.9%vs his norm +5.8% ▲
243 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
243 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
.287*
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
127 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
243 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
243 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.4 mph
98.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.4 mphvs his norm —
1019 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 37.9%→35.3%signal6 K — K% 37.9% (signal) tempered to career ~32.1% → projected 35.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.57signal2.57 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.57 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups