MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryan Reynolds
422 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Bryan Reynolds

PIT·LF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.369, +0.054 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.348 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.71
ROSHR 5AVG .258R 30RBI 29SB 3

Reynolds is a buy — elite contact, in-zone mastery.

His hard-hit rate has climbed through the sample, now at 47.3% — a full 7.3 points above league average — and his barrel rate is 10.1%, both stable with over 250 batted balls. His expected wOBA is .369, .054 above league, and that number is reliable after 422 plate appearances. The only note of caution is his BABIP of .348, which sits above the .295 league average and is not yet stable with 258 balls in play. That means some regression in batting average is likely, but the contact quality and plate discipline — a 14.7% walk rate against a 22.3% strikeout rate — are real. The skill is producing and the sample backs it up. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.1%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.369, +0.054 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.348 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
90.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
258 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.3%
47.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
258 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
258 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.369
.369*
lg avg .315 ▲+.054vs his norm —
422 / 160 PA
wOBA.385
.385*
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —
422 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.3%
22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
422 / 60 PA
Walk %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
422 / 120 PA
BABIP.348
norm.348*
lg avg .295 ▲+.053vs his norm +.030 ▲BABIP is above his ~.318 norm — expect it to fall.
258 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
422 / 50 PA
Chase %23.1%
23.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
422 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.1%→10.2%signal5 HR — Barrel% 10.1% (signal) held to career ~10.3% → projected 10.2%.
BABIP 0.348→0.318 regressednoise.258 AVG — BABIP 0.348 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.304 (xBA 0.259) → 0.318.
on-base + lineup30 R — his run rate over ~199 projected PA.
slugging + lineup29 RBI — his RBI rate over ~199 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (4 in 60 G) over ~199 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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