Is Bryan Reynolds a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Bryan Reynolds's rest-of-season outlook?

48% hard-hit, .361 xwOBA — contact carries the buy

632 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Bryan Reynolds

PIT·LF

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Buy stable xwOBA 0.361, +0.046 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.340 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.69

ROSHR 1AVG .254R 7RBI 7SB 1

Reynolds is a buy — the contact is real, the average will cool.

His hard-hit rate has climbed steadily and now sits at 48.1%, eight points above league average on 393 batted balls, well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. His expected wOBA is .361, .046 above league average, and it has been stepping up as the season has gone. That is the skill: he is hitting the ball hard and the results are earned. He is also walking 13% of the time and chasing less than league average, so the on-base skill is separate from the contact. His actual wOBA is .356, right in line with the expected figure, so nothing on the surface is fake. The one caveat is his BABIP at .340, which is above the .295 league average and is not reliable yet at 393 balls in play — some of the batting average will give back. The power and the plate discipline hold. Buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %11.5%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~10.3% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.361, +0.046 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
babipNOISEBABIP 0.340 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —

393 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %48.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —

393 / 50 BBE

Barrel %11.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +1.2% ▲

393 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.361

lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —

632 / 160 PA

wOBA.356

lg avg .315 ▲+.041vs his norm —

632 / 200 PA

Strikeout %23.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —

632 / 60 PA

Walk %13.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —

632 / 120 PA

BABIP.340

lg avg .295 ▲+.045vs his norm +.022 ▲BABIP is above his ~.318 norm — expect it to fall.

393 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —

632 / 50 PA

Chase %24.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —

632 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 11.5%→11.1%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.5% (signal) tempered to career ~10.3% → projected 11.1%.

BABIP 0.340→0.321 regressednoise.254 AVG — BABIP 0.340 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.258) → 0.321.

on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.

slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (4 in 60 G) over ~44 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons