373 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Nick Gonzales
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.327) — BABIP 0.372 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .291R 23RBI 23SB 3
Gonzales is a hold — league-average skill with luck noise.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .303 YTD → .291 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.6%—−3.2% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.327)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.372 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
273 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
273 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm −3.2% ▼
273 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —
373 / 160 PA
wOBA.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
373 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
373 / 60 PA
Walk %7.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
373 / 120 PA
BABIP.372
lg avg .295 ▲+.077vs his norm +.064 ▲BABIP is above his ~.308 norm — expect it to fall.
273 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
373 / 50 PA
Chase %31.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
373 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.6%→4.0%signal2 HR — Barrel% 2.6% (signal) lifted to career ~5.8% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.372→0.351 regressednoise.291 AVG — BABIP 0.372 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.341 (xBA 0.284) → 0.351.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~187 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~187 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 54 G) over ~187 projected PA.
rosterdeep.291 AVG
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.