week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Braxton Ashcraft
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Ashcraft is a buy — elite xERA, no luck needed.
His xERA is 2.76, a full 1.34 runs below league average, and he has faced 297 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The building blocks are all strong: a 27.3% strikeout rate, a 5.7% walk rate, and expected wOBA allowed of .265. His hard-hit rate allowed is 37.6% and barrel rate 5.7%, both below league average and stable based on 194 batted-ball events. The xERA has also been stepping down across his starts, suggesting improvement. There is no luck story here — his surface numbers match the skill. This is a pitcher who is earning his production. Buy.
Buy
high0.92
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.76, 1.34 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL194 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL194 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL297 / 200 TBF
xERA2.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.34trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL297 / 200 TBF
ERA2.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.33too early to trust
NOISE74.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL297 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL297 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
lg avg .295 ▼−.010too early to trust
NOISE194 / 800 BIP