week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Braxton Ashcraft
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 3.28, 0.82 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.85 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 65ERA 3.28WHIP 1.16W 3–6SV 0
Ashcraft is a buy — his xERA and velocity are trending up.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.8%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~25.8% career norm
- Walk %5.9%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~7.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.28, 0.82 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
300 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
300 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
461 / 200 TBF
xERA3.28
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —
461 / 200 TBF
ERA3.49
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
461 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
461 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
300 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
461 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
461 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
1701 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.8%→27.2%signal65 K — K% 27.8% (signal) tempered to career ~25.8% → projected 27.2% over ~62 remaining…
xERA 3.28signal3.28 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.28 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.16 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep65 K ROS, 3.28 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.