MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Braxton Ashcraft
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.45, 0.65 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 3.45WHIP 1.14W 0–0SV 0

Ashcraft is a buy — the velocity and the whiffs back it up

His fastball is sitting at 97.3 mph, well above the 94.0 league average, and it has been climbing across the sample. That kind of velocity is the engine behind everything else. He strikes out 25.9% of batters and walks just 5.2%, against league marks of 22% and 8%, so the strike-zone control is real and the sample is past the point where both numbers stabilize. The contact he allows is soft enough to matter: a .287 expected wOBA allowed and a 3.45 expected ERA, 0.65 below league, with the expected ERA trending down as the sample has grown. He gets chases on 37% of pitches outside the zone and swings and misses on 13.3%, so hitters are not squaring him up. The skill is earned, not propped up. Buy. Deep-league stash: 3.45 ERA and 1.14 WHIP are a real asset now, so acquire before the window closes.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~7.0% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.9%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~25.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.45, 0.65 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
452 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
452 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
.287*
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
667 / 200 TBF
xERA3.45
3.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65vs his norm —
667 / 200 TBF
ERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
165.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
norm25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
667 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.2%
norm5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
667 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
.287*
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
452 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
667 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.0%
37.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
667 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
2413 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→25.9%signal0 K — K% 25.9% (signal) tempered to career ~25.8% → projected 25.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.45signal3.45 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.45 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.2% + contactsignal1.14 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.45 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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