week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Antwone Kelly
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.12); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Kelly is a hold — league average, with his expected ERA still short on sample.
ROS projects K 1 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
58 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA5.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.7 mphvs his norm —
293 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.3%→18.6%signal0 K — K% 17.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 18.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.12noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.12 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.