MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Jared Jones

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.18, 0.92 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.88
ROSK 0ERA 3.18WHIP 1.16W 0–0SV 0

Jones is a buy — the strikeouts and the fastball are real

His expected ERA is 3.18, well under the league average of 4.10, and across 415 batters faced that number has had time to settle in. It is still dropping, which matters more than the level itself. The pitch data tells the same story: his fastball is averaging 98.2 mph against a league mark of 94.0, and it has been ticking up rather than fading. He strikes out 29.6% of batters, well clear of the 22.0% league rate, and his swing-and-miss rate of 16.1% backs that up. He also chases hitters off the plate at 32.8%. Nobody is getting lucky hits here — his expected wOBA allowed is .276. The strikeouts are coming from real stuff, and the results follow. Buy. 0 K and a 3.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP — an asset to acquire now, before the punchouts pile up and the price climbs.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.6%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.18, 0.92 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
258 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
258 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
.276*
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —
415 / 200 TBF
xERA3.18
3.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92vs his norm —
415 / 200 TBF
ERA3.72
3.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.38vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
101.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
norm29.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
415 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
415 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
258 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
16.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
415 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
415 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
98.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
1634 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.6%→28.4%signal0 K — K% 29.6% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 28.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.18signal3.18 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.18 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.16 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 3.18 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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