week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jared Jones
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.58); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 55ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Jones is a hold — good stuff, league-average results, nothing to chase.
ROS projects K 6 YTD → 55 ROS, ERA 10.38 YTD → 4.10 ROS, WHIP 2.08 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.1%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.58)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 200 TBF
xERA3.58
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.52vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 200 TBF
ERA4.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
144 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.9% norm — expect it to rise.
144 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
577 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→26.5%signal55 K — K% 27.1% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 26.5% over ~41 remaining…
xERA 3.58noise4.10 ERA — xERA 3.58 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop55 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.