MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Jared Jones

PIT·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.74
ROSK 13ERA 3.62WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Jones is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and the xERA backs it.

His expected ERA is 3.62, a half-run better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. He strikes out 27.6% of hitters, well above the 22% league mark, and swings and misses at 15.4% of pitches against an 11% league average. His fastball sits at 98.3 mph and has been climbing across the sample while his expected ERA has been stepping down — the two are moving in the same direction. The walk rate, 8.4%, is only slightly above league, so the strikeouts come without a control problem. Nothing here is propped up by luck; the skill is earned. Buy. 13 K / 3.62 ERA makes him a deep-league asset worth stashing now, before the strikeout rate pushes him onto everyone's radar.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.6%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.4%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
211 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
211 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
333 / 200 TBF
xERA3.62
3.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —
333 / 200 TBF
ERA4.46
4.46*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.36vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
78.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.6%
norm27.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
333 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
norm8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
333 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
211 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
333 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
333 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
98.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
1312 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.6%→27.0%signal13 K — K% 27.6% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 27.0% over ~10 remaining…
xERA 3.62signal3.62 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.62 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.4% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.62 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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