107 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Tyler Callihan
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 36% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.252); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Callihan is a hold — the whiff rate caps the upside.
ROS projects AVG .333 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.252)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 36% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.5 mphvs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %27.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.9%vs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.252
lg avg .315 ▼−.063vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 160 PA
wOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 200 PA
Strikeout %35.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.5%vs his norm —
107 / 60 PA
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 120 PA
BABIP.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
59 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
107 / 50 PA
Chase %33.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
107 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.8%→7.0%noise0 HR — Barrel% 6.8% (noise) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.0%.
BABIP 0.309→0.236 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.309 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.185) → 0.236.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 3 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.