89 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Tyler Callihan
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.327 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.289 is 0.047 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .263HR 2R 21RBI 21SB 0
Callihan is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.327 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.047 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.1 mphvs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.289
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 160 PA
wOBA.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
89 / 60 PA
Walk %10.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 120 PA
BABIP.327
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
Chase %32.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.7%→7.8%noise2 HR — Barrel% 7.7% (noise) held to league ~8.0% → projected 7.8%.
BABIP 0.327→0.236 regressednoise.263 AVG — BABIP 0.327 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.212) → 0.236.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~105 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~105 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 3 G) over ~105 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.