MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Wilber Dotel
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Wilber Dotel

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.80
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0

Dotel is a buy-low — his stuff is real and his ERA is inflated

His fastball is sitting at 98.3 mph, against a league average of 94.0, and the velocity has been stepping up across the sample. That is a stable number, and it matters more than his ERA. The 4.46 ERA has been pushed up by a .322 BABIP-against, 27 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 125, so that gap is luck, not a skill problem. His expected ERA is 3.81, 0.29 below league average, which is the level his pitching actually deserves. He strikes out 22.5% of batters, right at league average, with a barrel rate allowed of 4.0% that is half the league mark. This is a real arm with an ugly surface. Buy low. The dip prices a 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP with 0 K in the ROS line — deep-league buy, not a must-add.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.8%
believable since Jun 1344.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
125 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
4.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
125 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
182 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
182 / 200 TBF
ERA4.46
4.46*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.36vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
42.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
182 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
182 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.322
.322*
lg avg .295 ▲+.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
125 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
182 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
182 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
98.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
706 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.8%signal0 K — K% 22.5% (signal) held to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 22.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.81 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 8.8% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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