110 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last week—
Rafael Flores Jr.
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.350); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .265R 11RBI 11SB 0
Flores is a hold — contact plus strikeouts balance out.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .667 YTD → .265 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.350)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.350
lg avg .315 ▲+.035vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 160 PA
wOBA.359
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
110 / 60 PA
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 120 PA
BABIP.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
110 / 50 PA
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
110 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.7%→13.4%signal1 HR — Barrel% 14.7% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 13.4%.
BABIP 0.267→0.233 regressednoise.265 AVG — BABIP 0.267 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.249) → 0.233.
on-base + lineup11 R — his run rate over ~29 projected PA.
slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~29 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~29 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.