274 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekBUY-LOW
Henry Davis
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .185R 3RBI 3SB 0
Davis is a sell — his skill sits below league and the luck ran dry.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.7%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
184 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
184 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
184 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
274 / 160 PA
wOBA.260
lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —
274 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
274 / 60 PA
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
274 / 120 PA
BABIP.180
lg avg .295 ▼−.115vs his norm −.056 ▼BABIP is below his ~.236 norm — expect it to rise.
184 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
274 / 50 PA
Chase %32.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
274 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.7%→8.7%signal1 HR — Barrel% 8.7% (signal) held to career ~8.7% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.180→0.218 regressednoise.185 AVG — BABIP 0.180 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.200) → 0.218.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~36 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~36 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 41 G) over ~36 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.