MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Henry Davis
298 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekBUY-LOW

Henry Davis

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Davis is a sell — the contact is average, the results are not

His expected wOBA is .290, a full 25 points below the league average of .315, and his 298 plate appearances are well past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no bailout here: his actual wOBA is .267, so luck is not hiding a better hitter underneath. The contact quality is the tell. His exit velocity of 90.3 mph and hard-hit rate of 40.9% are only marginally above league average — not enough to carry a bat at a premium position. He is also chasing 32.3% of pitches outside the zone against a league mark of 28.5%, and his swing-and-miss rate of 13.6% sits well above league, which caps the batting average. The expected wOBA has stepped down across the sample. This is a profile in decline, not a player primed for a bounce. Sell. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG makes him waiver-wire fodder — a drop, streaming-only catcher.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.6%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph
90.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
198 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
198 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
198 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
believable since Jun 29.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
298 / 160 PA
wOBA.267
.267*
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —
298 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.1%
21.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
298 / 60 PA
Walk %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
298 / 120 PA
BABIP.184
norm.184*
lg avg .295 ▼−.111vs his norm −.052 ▼BABIP is below his ~.236 norm — expect it to rise.
198 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
298 / 50 PA
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
298 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.6%→8.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.6% (signal) held to career ~8.7% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.184→0.219 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.184 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.199) → 0.219.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 41 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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