Is Henry Davis a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Henry Davis's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA 0.294; 10.2% barrel rate can't lift the line.

188 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekBUY-LOW

Henry Davis

PIT·C

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 4AVG .194R 15RBI 15SB 1

Davis is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected wOBA is .294, .021 below league, and the sample has cleared the 160-PA stabilization point, so the number is reliable. His actual wOBA tracks right with it — there is no unlucky slump propping the line down. The contact quality tells the same story: hard-hit rate is 39.4% vs. league 40%, barrel rate is a tick above, but the overall exit velocity is right at league average. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, trending the wrong direction. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he's at. Sell. 4 HR / 15 RBI / .194 AVG — a streaming-only catcher bat even in deep formats; cut bait.

VS His Norm

Barrel %10.2%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —

127 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %39.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —

127 / 50 BBE

Barrel %10.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +1.5% ▲

127 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.294

lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —

188 / 160 PA

wOBA.274

lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.

188 / 200 PA

Strikeout %20.2%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —

188 / 60 PA

Walk %9.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

188 / 120 PA

BABIP.161

lg avg .295 ▼−.134vs his norm −.075 ▼BABIP is below his ~.236 norm — expect it to rise.

127 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —

188 / 50 PA

Chase %31.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —

188 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 10.2%→9.3%signal4 HR — Barrel% 10.2% (signal) tempered to career ~8.7% → projected 9.3%.

BABIP 0.161→0.219 regressednoise.194 AVG — BABIP 0.161 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.199) → 0.219.

on-base + lineup15 R — his run rate over ~160 projected PA.

slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~160 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 41 G) over ~160 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons