Rest of Season Projection
AustinCategoryHenry
2HR →8
32R ←24
16RBI →24
3SB ←2
.238AVG ←.200
Current Season
AustinCategoryHenry
1HR →4
12R12
6RBI →12
1SB1
.244AVG ←.139
What Each Player's System Trusts
Austin Hedges
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.290)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.315 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Henry Davis
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.135 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Hedges projects for 2 HR / .238 AVG against Davis's 8 HR / .200 AVG, a six-homer edge but a 38-point average deficit. Davis's underlying skill supports a better surface. Buy-low call separates them.