221 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Austin Hedges
data as of September 11, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 11, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.272 is 0.036 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.291 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.74 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .213HR 0R 4RBI 2SB 0
Hedges is a sell-high — the surface hides a weak bat.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %4.4%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~1.7% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.291 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.272 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —
221 / 160 PA
wOBA.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
221 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
221 / 60 PA
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
221 / 120 PA
BABIP.291
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm +.061 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
221 / 50 PA
Chase %26.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
221 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.4%→2.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.4% (signal) tempered to career ~1.7% → projected 2.9%.
BABIP 0.291→0.267 regressednoise.213 AVG — BABIP 0.291 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.261 (xBA 0.221) → 0.267.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~32 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~32 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 29 G) over ~32 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.