MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Austin Hedges
145 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Austin Hedges

CLE·C
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP 0.337 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.298 is 0.038 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.65
ROSHR 1AVG .247R 20RBI 10SB 2

Hedges is a sell-high — BABIP is doing the work.

His actual wOBA is .336, but the gap to his expected wOBA of .298 is the story — that 38-point difference is pure BABIP luck. His BABIP sits at .337, well above the league average of .295, and with only 108 balls in play it is simply not reliable yet. The underlying contact quality does not support the surface: an average exit velocity of 86.9 mph, a 33.3% hard-hit rate, and a 5.6% barrel rate, all below league. He is not striking out much (17.2%) and his walk rate and chase rate are nearly league average, so he is not a total zero — but the line overstates the skill. Regression is coming the moment the BABIP normalizes. Sell high. 1 HR / 20 R / 10 RBI / 2 SB / .247 AVG line belies regression — this is a streaming-only drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.6%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~1.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.337 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.298 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.9 mph
86.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.6%
normbelievable since May 305.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
108 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.298
.298*
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 160 PA
wOBA.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
145 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.2%
17.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
145 / 60 PA
Walk %7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
145 / 120 PA
BABIP.337
norm.337*
lg avg .295 ▲+.042vs his norm +.107 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
108 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
145 / 50 PA
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
145 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.6%→3.1%signal1 HR — Barrel% 5.6% (signal) tempered to career ~1.7% → projected 3.1%.
BABIP 0.337→0.307 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.337 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.302 (xBA 0.254) → 0.307.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~149 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~149 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 29 G) over ~149 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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