Rest of Season Projection
AustinCategoryJoey
2HR →6
32R32
16RBI →21
3SB ←0
.238AVG ←.199
Current Season
AustinCategoryJoey
1HR →2
12R ←9
6RBI6
1SB ←0
.244AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Austin Hedges
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.290)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.315 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Joey Bart
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
Austin Hedges: 2 HR / 32 R. Joey Bart: 6 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).