MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
62 PA · week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Joey Bart

PIT·C
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.65
ROSHR 6AVG .199R 32RBI 21SB 0

Bart is a sell-high — his BABIP is inflating a weak line.

His BABIP sits at .361, 66 points above the league average of .295, but that number is a noise stat. BABIP needs about 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 38 — far short of that threshold. Strip out the luck and his expected wOBA is .256, well below the league average of .315. That is the skill level the regression is pointing toward. Meanwhile his strikeout rate is a stable 34%, well above the league average of 22%, and it has been stepping up across the sample — that caps his floor even when the BABIP normalizes. The surface line is real on the scoreboard but built on an unreliable foundation. The data says the bat is below league and the luck will run out. Sell high. 6 HR / 32 R / 21 RBI / 0 SB / .199 AVG: a sell-high window; regression turns this into a drop.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.9 mph
86.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.8%
36.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −1.5% ▼Barrel % is below his ~9.4% norm — expect it to rise.
38 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.256
.256*
lg avg .315 ▼−.059vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 160 PA
wOBA.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.9%vs his norm —
62 / 60 PA
Walk %3.2%
3.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 120 PA
BABIP.361
norm.361*
lg avg .295 ▲+.066vs his norm +.031 ▲BABIP is above his ~.330 norm — expect it to fall.
38 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.9%→9.1%noise6 HR — Barrel% 7.9% (noise) lifted to career ~9.4% → projected 9.1%.
BABIP 0.361→0.281 regressednoise.199 AVG — BABIP 0.361 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.277 (xBA 0.208) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup32 R — his run rate over ~221 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~221 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~221 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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