Rest of Season Projection
JoeCategoryJoey
6HR6
23R →32
19RBI →21
0SB0
.243AVG ←.199
Current Season
JoeCategoryJoey
0HR →2
7R →9
6RBI6
0SB0
.209AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joe Mack
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.277)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.350 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Joey Bart
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
Joe Mack: 6 HR / 23 R. Joey Bart: 6 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).