MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
117 PA · week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Nick Yorke

PIT·3B
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.269 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Yorke is a buy-low — the bat is fine, the bounces are not.

His hard-hit rate is 43.8%, above the 40.0% league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His contact quality is past the 50-batted-ball threshold and intact. The cold line comes from his BABIP: .269 against a league average of .295, and that number needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 80. His actual wOBA is .258, well below league, but his expected wOBA is .289 — the gap is luck, not a hole in his swing. He strikes out 22.2% of the time, right at league average, so the profile is stable. The bat is real; the results are noise. Buy low.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.269 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph
88.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.8%
43.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.289
.289*
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 160 PA
wOBA.258
.258*
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.2%
22.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
117 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 120 PA
BABIP.269
norm.269*
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm −.004 ▼BABIP is below his ~.273 norm — expect it to rise.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
Chase %31.8%
31.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.
BABIP 0.269→0.282 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.269 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.284 (xBA 0.235) → 0.282.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 29 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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