week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Bubba Chandler
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Chandler is a sell — skill is below league, no luck to blame.
His expected xERA is 4.62, half a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The xERA has stepped up across the sample, trending the wrong way. His walk rate is 15.3%, nearly double the league average of 8%, and walks stabilize early — that is a real control problem. His strikeout rate is exactly league average, so there is no punch-out skill to offset the free passes. His actual ERA matches the xERA, with no luck story from BABIP-against. The skill is below league and the trend is getting worse. Sell.
Sell
med0.71
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.62 +0.52 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL146 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL146 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL236 / 200 TBF
xERA4.62
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.52trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL236 / 200 TBF
ERA4.85
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.75too early to trust
NOISE52 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.0%
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL236 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL236 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036too early to trust
NOISE146 / 800 BIP