MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bubba Chandler
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Bubba Chandler

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.23WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0

Chandler is a hold — league-average profile with no luck driving it.

His expected ERA is 4.30 against a league average of 4.10 — close enough to the middle that there is no skill edge to buy and no collapse brewing to sell. What he allows on contact confirms it: .318 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, with 674 batters faced, well past the 200 needed to trust the number. The fastball is the one outlier at 98.3 mph, but velocity is not run prevention, and his strikeout rate of 20.8% sits below league. The genuine blemish is his walk rate at 11.9% versus 8.0% league, and that is stable at this sample, not noise. The expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, which is the wrong direction. Nothing unstable is swinging this line — the profile is simply what it is. Hold. With 0 K and a 4.23 ERA ROS, this is a drop-tier hold — waiver-wire filler, not a difference-maker.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.8%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~23.1% career norm
  • Walk %11.9%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~11.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
446 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
446 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
674 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
4.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
674 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
norm20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
674 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
norm11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
674 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
.281*
lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
446 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
674 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
674 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
98.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
2686 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→21.3%signal0 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~23.1% → projected 21.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 52 IP.
BB% 11.9% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.23 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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