MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Endy Rodríguez
159 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Endy Rodríguez

PIT·C
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Sell High BABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.338 is 0.032 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.63
ROSHR 0AVG .223R 5RBI 2SB 1

Rodríguez is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying the line.

His wOBA is .370, well above the league average of .315, and the number holding it up is his BABIP: .333 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 94, so that gap is luck, not skill. His expected wOBA is .338, .032 below his actual line, and the difference is the regression coming. The contact underneath is decent — 92.4 mph average exit velocity and a 46.8% hard-hit rate, both above league — so there is a real hitter here. He is just not the .370 hitter the market is pricing. Limited data, so the call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high. Sell into the regression: 0 HR / 5 R / 2 RBI / 1 SB / .223 AVG is deep-league drop fodder, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.6%—+6.0% ▲vs his ~4.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.338 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.8%
46.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.6%
norm10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +6.0% ▲
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.338
.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
159 / 160 PA
wOBA.370
.370*
lg avg .315 ▲+.055vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
159 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.8%
25.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
159 / 60 PA
Walk %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
159 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
norm.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm +.061 ▲BABIP is above his ~.272 norm — expect it to fall.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
159 / 50 PA
Chase %26.1%
26.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
159 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.6%→6.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.6% (signal) tempered to career ~4.6% → projected 6.5%.
BABIP 0.333→0.322 regressednoise.223 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.321 (xBA 0.245) → 0.322.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 10 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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