159 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Endy Rodríguez
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Sell High BABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.338 is 0.032 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Rodríguez is a sell-high — his .370 line is built on BABIP.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.6%—+6.0% ▲vs his ~4.6% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.338 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +6.0% ▲
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.338
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
159 / 160 PA
wOBA.370
lg avg .315 ▲+.055vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
159 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
159 / 60 PA
Walk %14.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
159 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm +.061 ▲BABIP is above his ~.272 norm — expect it to fall.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
159 / 50 PA
Chase %26.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
159 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.6%→6.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.6% (signal) tempered to career ~4.6% → projected 6.5%.
BABIP 0.333→0.322 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.321 (xBA 0.245) → 0.322.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 10 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.