week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Isaac Mattson
data as of July 29, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Mattson is a hold — limited data, nothing to trust yet.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 13 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.4%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 200 TBF
xERA6.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 200 TBF
ERA4.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
147 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm −1.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.8% norm — expect it to rise.
147 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.327
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
609 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.4%→20.7%signal13 K — K% 20.4% (signal) held to career ~20.9% → projected 20.7% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 6.16noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.