week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Isaac Mattson
data as of June 14, 2026·week 12
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.33); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 29ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Mattson is a hold — limited data, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 29 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.2%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.33)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed49.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.2%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.383
lg avg .315 ▲+.068vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 200 TBF
xERA6.33
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.23vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 200 TBF
ERA4.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
87 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.8% norm — expect it to rise.
87 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
61 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.2%→19.7%signal29 K — K% 17.2% (signal) lifted to career ~20.9% → projected 19.7% over ~33 remaining IP.
xERA 6.33noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.33 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.59 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.