Is Mitch Keller a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Mitch Keller's rest-of-season outlook?

xERA 5.51 and just 17.7% strikeouts — no miss, no results.

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Mitch Keller

PIT·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

ON THE 60-DAY IL

flipped from SELL-HIGH

Sell stable xERA 5.51 +1.41 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 0ERA 5.02WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0

Keller is a sell — the expected ERA says the skill is below league

His expected ERA is 5.51, a full 1.41 runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The trend is not helping: his expected ERA has stepped up across the season, so this is not an early read that will settle. Nothing in the profile is propping up the ERA — he strikes out 17.7% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.7% sits below the league's 11.0%. His walk rate of 8.3% is close to average, so there is no hidden control problem to blame. He allows expected contact at .355, 40 points above league. There is no luck story here and no underlying skill waiting to break out. Sell. 0 K and a 5.02 ERA is streaming-only waiver fodder, so fade the production and cut the tax.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %17.7%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
Walk %8.3%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.51 +1.41 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed42.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —

364 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed7.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —

364 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.355

lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —

503 / 200 TBF

xERA5.51

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —

503 / 200 TBF

ERA5.29

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.19vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

115.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %17.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −4.0% ▼

503 / 70 TBF

Walk %8.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲

503 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.292

lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

364 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —

503 / 60 TBF

Chase %29.4%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —

503 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.3 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —

1887 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 17.7%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 17.7% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 5.51signal5.02 ERA — xERA 5.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.

BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.02 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons