week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
Mitch Keller
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 47ERA 4.93WHIP 1.37W 3–6SV 0
Keller is a sell — skill below league with no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.4%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
- Walk %7.9%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
324 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
324 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.354
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
xERA5.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.27vs his norm —
443 / 200 TBF
ERA5.14
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.04vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
103.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
443 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
443 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
324 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
443 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
1660 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.4%→18.7%signal47 K — K% 17.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 18.7% over ~59 remaining IP.
xERA 5.37signal4.93 ERA — xERA 5.37 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop47 K ROS, 4.93 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.