432 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Jake Mangum
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .253R 5RBI 3SB 2
Mangum is a sell — the contact is below league and the line is luck.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.9%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~2.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.6 mphvs his norm —
313 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %26.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.5%vs his norm —
313 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
313 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —
432 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
432 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
432 / 60 PA
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
432 / 120 PA
BABIP.354
lg avg .295 ▲+.059vs his norm +.009 ▲BABIP is above his ~.345 norm — expect it to fall.
313 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
432 / 50 PA
Chase %45.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+17.1%vs his norm —
432 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.9%→2.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.9% (signal) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 2.2%.
BABIP 0.354→0.317 regressednoise.253 AVG — BABIP 0.354 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.294 (xBA 0.246) → 0.317.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (8 in 41 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.