MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Engraved portrait of Konnor Griffin
247 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Konnor Griffin

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.305) — BABIP 0.363 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 3AVG .239R 23RBI 17SB 11

Griffin a hold — league-average skill, no edge in either direction.

His expected wOBA sits at .305, just 10 points below league average, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. The bat is right around league average: exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate all cluster near the middle of the distribution. His actual wOBA runs slightly above his expected wOBA, and the gap is explained by a .363 BABIP that is 68 points above league average but still unsteady at 162 balls in play — far short of the 800 needed to trust it. Some of that average will regress. The underlying skill is what it is: average contact, a below-average walk rate, and an elevated chase rate that keeps the ceiling modest. With no luck story propping up the line and no hidden skill to unlock, the call is plain. Hold. Expect 3 HR / 23 R / 17 RBI / 11 SB / .239 AVG — hold as a deep-league asset with no catalyst to cut or chase.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.305)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.8 mph
87.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.2 mphvs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.0%
37.0%*
lg avg 40.0% −3.0%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.305
.305*
lg avg .315 −.010vs his norm —
247 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
.324*
lg avg .315 +.009vs his norm —
247 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.3%
26.3%*
lg avg 22.0% +4.3%vs his norm —
247 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.5% −2.0%vs his norm —
247 / 120 PA
BABIP.363
.363*
lg avg .295 +.068vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.4%
16.4%*
lg avg 11.0% +5.4%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA
Chase %38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 28.5% +10.3%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.0%→8.0%signal3 HR — Barrel% 8.0% (signal) held to league ~8.0% → projected 8.0%.
BABIP 0.363→0.319 regressednoise.239 AVG — BABIP 0.363 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.308 (xBA 0.240) → 0.319.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~156 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~156 projected PA.
run rate / role11 SB — his steal rate (14 in 51 G) over ~156 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups