week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Yohan Ramírez
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.32 is 0.46 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.32WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0–0
Ramírez is a sell-high — his 2.86 ERA is BABIP-deep, not real.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.2%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~24.0% career norm
- Walk %12.2%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.32 is 0.46 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.3%vs his norm —
202 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
202 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —
362 / 200 TBF
xERA3.32
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —
362 / 200 TBF
ERA2.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
85 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
362 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
362 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
202 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
362 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
362 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
1411 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.2%→26.7%signal0 K — K% 28.2% (signal) tempered to career ~24.0% → projected 26.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.32signal3.32 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.32 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.2% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.