week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Yohan Ramírez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.82 is 0.51 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.85 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 27ERA 3.78WHIP 1.42W 1–3SV 0–1
Ramírez is a sell-high — ERA flattered by BABIP noise.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %13.6%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm
- Strikeout %25.4%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~24.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.82 is 0.51 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.0%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
xERA3.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
ERA3.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
228 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
228 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
857 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→24.8%signal27 K — K% 25.4% (signal) tempered to career ~24.0% → projected 24.8% over ~24 remaining…
xERA 3.82signal3.78 ERA — xERA 3.82 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 32 IP.
BB% 13.6% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.78 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.