295 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Spencer Horwitz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .234HR 4R 21RBI 23SB 1
Horwitz is a buy — his skill is real and trending up.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.6%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~8.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
210 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
295 / 160 PA
wOBA.370
lg avg .315 ▲+.055vs his norm —
295 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.4%vs his norm —
295 / 60 PA
Walk %13.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
295 / 120 PA
BABIP.295
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm −.014 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
210 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
295 / 50 PA
Chase %24.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
295 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.6%→8.4%signal4 HR — Barrel% 8.6% (signal) tempered to career ~8.1% → projected 8.4%.
BABIP 0.295→0.248 regressednoise.234 AVG — BABIP 0.295 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.232 (xBA 0.236) → 0.248.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~183 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~183 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 55 G) over ~183 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.