MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Spencer Horwitz
411 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Spencer Horwitz

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.311); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .222HR 1R 5RBI 5SB 0

Horwitz is a hold — the profile is steady, and the results match it.

His expected wOBA is .311, four points under the league average of .315, and he has 411 plate appearances — well past the 160 it takes for that number to mean something. His actual wOBA is .323, so he is not being carried by balls falling in, and there is no gap to sell against. The contact is a touch under league — 32.0% hard-hit, 6.2% barrels — but he covers it with a 15.6% strikeout rate, far better than the 22.0% league mark, and an 11.9% walk rate that beats league. Nothing unstable is propping him up; the one note is that his expected wOBA has stepped down across the sample, so the bat is drifting toward the lower end of average rather than climbing. That is a steady player, not a story. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.2%−1.9%vs his ~8.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.311)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.0 mph
87.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −2.0 mphvs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 40.0% −8.0%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.2%
norm6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.8%vs his norm −1.9%
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.311
.311*
lg avg .315 −.004vs his norm —
411 / 160 PA
wOBA.323
believable since May 30.323*
lg avg .315 +.008vs his norm —
411 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 22.0% −6.4%vs his norm —
411 / 60 PA
Walk %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.5% +3.4%vs his norm —
411 / 120 PA
BABIP.270
norm.270*
lg avg .295 −.025vs his norm −.039 BABIP is below his ~.309 normexpect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 11.0% −4.3%vs his norm —
411 / 50 PA
Chase %24.6%
24.6%*
lg avg 28.5% −3.9%vs his norm —
411 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.2%→7.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.2% (signal) lifted to career ~8.1% → projected 7.0%.
BABIP 0.270→0.245 regressednoise.222 AVG — BABIP 0.270 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.224) → 0.245.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 55 G) over ~41 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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