MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Lake Bachar
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Lake Bachar

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.39, 0.71 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.81
ROSK 0ERA 3.39WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0

Bachar is a buy — earned run prevention, no luck involved

His expected ERA is 3.39, .71 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 358 batters — past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact he allows backs it up: a .285 expected wOBA against, well under the .315 league mark, with a 34.1% hard-hit rate allowed that sits below league. Nothing in the profile is being held up by a lucky stat. He strikes out 26% of batters and gets swinging strikes on 13.6% of pitches, both above league, and his fastball is averaging 94.4 mph and climbing across the sample. The walk rate of 10.1% is the one soft spot, but it does not undo the rest. His expected ERA keeps stepping down, and the skill underneath is holding. Buy. The ROS line reads 0 K / 3.39 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 0-0 W / 0 SV — a deep-league asset worth adding, not a streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.1%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.0%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~26.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.39, 0.71 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.1%
34.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
223 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
223 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.285
believable since Jul 10.285*
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
358 / 200 TBF
xERA3.39
3.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —
358 / 200 TBF
ERA3.43
3.43*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.67vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.0%
norm26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
358 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
358 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.229
.229*
lg avg .295 ▼−.066vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
223 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
358 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
358 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1448 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.0%→26.0%signal0 K — K% 26.0% (signal) held to career ~26.1% → projected 26.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.39signal3.39 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.39 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.39 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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