MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gregory Soto
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Gregory Soto

PIT·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.85, 1.25 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 5ERA 2.85WHIP 1.26W 0–1SV 1–2

Soto is a buy — the strikeout stuff and the xERA both hold up.

His xERA is 2.85, a run and a quarter below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying contact numbers agree: he gives up a 33.8% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average and a 4.6% barrel rate against 8%, both on 151 balls in play, past the point where contact quality becomes trustworthy. He strikes out 27.7% of hitters, well above the 22% league mark. He is averaging 97.1 mph on the fastball, three miles an hour above league, and that velocity has been stepping up across the sample while his expected ERA steps down. The walk rate at 9.6% is the one soft spot, but nothing here is propped up by luck. Buy. 5 K and 1-2 SV is a deep-league-only asset, not a must-add — stash the ratios and stream the saves.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.7%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
  • Walk %9.6%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~11.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.85, 1.25 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
151 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.6%
believable since May 304.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
151 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
249 / 200 TBF
xERA2.85
2.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —
249 / 200 TBF
ERA3.13
3.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.7%
norm27.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
249 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
norm9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
249 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
.250*
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
151 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
249 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
249 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
1007 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.7%→26.4%signal5 K — K% 27.7% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 26.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.85signal2.85 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.85 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 2.85 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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