MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gregory Soto
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Gregory Soto

PIT·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Soto is a sell-high — ERA is propped up by BABIP luck.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
med0.73

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.153 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.39 is 0.44 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
35.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL60 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.247
.247
lg avg .315 ▼−.068too early to trust
NOISE105 / 200 TBF
xERA2.39
2.39
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.71too early to trust
NOISE105 / 200 TBF
ERA1.95
1.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.15too early to trust
NOISE27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.5%
30.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL105 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%too early to trust
NOISE105 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.153
.153
lg avg .295 ▼−.142too early to trust
NOISE60 / 800 BIP