Gregory Soto
Soto is a buy — the earned run prevention is real and stable.
His expected ERA is 3.03, a full run below the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 285 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. The velocity backs it: 97.1 mph on the fastball, three mph above league, and stepping up across the sample. He is missing bats at 27.7% strikeouts against a 22% league rate, and the contact he allows is weak — a .270 expected wOBA allowed and a 4.1% barrel rate against an 8% league mark, both on samples big enough to trust. His walks run high at 10.2%, which is the one crack in the profile, but it does not undo the run prevention. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the trend and the level agree. The skill is earned. Buy. Deep-league asset at 3.03 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with zero saves projected — add him for the ratios, not the saves.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.7%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
- Walk %10.2%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~11.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.03, 1.07 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.