week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Gregory Soto
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.31); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.67WHIP 1.25W 2–5SV 4–7
Soto is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 32 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.0%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.31)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 200 TBF
xERA3.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 200 TBF
ERA4.05
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.05vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
163 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −1.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.4% norm — expect it to rise.
163 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.223
lg avg .295 ▼−.072vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
163 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
163 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
662 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.0%→25.7%signal25 K — K% 27.0% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 25.7% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.31noise3.67 ERA — xERA 3.31 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 7…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)4-7 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep13 SV, 3.67 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.