Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryMitch
73K →80
4.75ERA →4.66
1.37WHIP ←1.38
5–11W ←5–10
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryMitch
39K →51
4.20ERA ←4.35
1.47WHIP →1.17
5W5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Mitch Keller
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.96 +0.86 vs league with no luck excuse
Aaron Civale: 73 K / 4.75 ERA. Mitch Keller: 80 K / 4.66 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).