Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryJacob
73K →148
4.75ERA →2.25
1.37WHIP →1.01
5–11W5–12
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryJacob
39K →108
4.20ERA →1.65
1.47WHIP →0.79
5W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jacob Misiorowski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.25 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Civale: 74 K / 4.74 ERA. Jacob Misiorowski: 150 K / 2.25 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).