MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob Misiorowski
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xERA 2.09, 2.01 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 20ERA 2.09WHIP 0.95W 1–2SV 0

Misiorowski is a buy — his expected ERA is elite and earned.

His expected ERA is 2.09, two full runs better than the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the sample. The strikeout rate is the foundation: 38.3% of batters, against a league average of 22.0%, with a swinging-strike rate of 19.0% that is well above the 11.0% league mark. The contact he allows is weak across the board — a .225 expected wOBA allowed, a 3.9% barrel rate, and a hard-hit rate of 33.3%, all far better than league. He also limits walks to 6.7%. The fastball is averaging 100.6 mph and climbing. Nothing here is propped up by luck. The skill is real and the sample is large enough to trust it. Buy. 20 K and a 2.09 ERA ROS make him an asset — acquire before the strikeout rate pushes his price up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %38.3%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~35.7% career norm
  • Walk %6.7%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.09, 2.01 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
330 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.9%
3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
330 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.225
.225*
lg avg .315 ▼−.090vs his norm —
616 / 200 TBF
xERA2.09
2.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.01vs his norm —
616 / 200 TBF
ERA1.95
1.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.15vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
161.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %38.3%
norm38.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.3%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
616 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
616 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.235
.235*
lg avg .295 ▼−.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
330 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.0%
19.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
616 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
616 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.6 mph
100.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.6 mphvs his norm —
2453 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 38.3%→37.7%signal20 K — K% 38.3% (signal) tempered to career ~35.7% → projected 37.7% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 2.09signal2.09 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.09 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal0.95 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.270 gives a 0.95 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard20 K ROS, 2.09 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups