week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Jacob Misiorowski
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 2.13, 1.97 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.13WHIP 0.95W 0–0SV 0
Misiorowski is a buy — the strikeout skill is earned, not lucky
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.6%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm
- Strikeout %37.9%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~35.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.13, 1.97 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
360 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
360 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.226
lg avg .315 ▼−.089vs his norm —
665 / 200 TBF
xERA2.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.97vs his norm —
665 / 200 TBF
ERA1.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.30vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
174.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %37.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.9%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
665 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
665 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.238
lg avg .295 ▼−.057vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
360 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
665 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
665 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.6 mphvs his norm —
2647 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 37.9%→37.4%signal0 K — K% 37.9% (signal) tempered to career ~35.7% → projected 37.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.13signal2.13 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.13 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal0.95 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.269 gives a 0.95 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.13 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.