week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekBUY
Jacob Misiorowski
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.05 is 0.43 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 88ERA 2.05WHIP 0.94W 3–7SV 0
Misiorowski is a sell-high — BABIP luck is inflating the ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %39.6%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~35.7% career norm
- Walk %6.4%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.05 is 0.43 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
220 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
220 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.224
lg avg .315 ▼−.091vs his norm —
422 / 200 TBF
xERA2.05
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.05vs his norm —
422 / 200 TBF
ERA1.62
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 IP
Strikeout %39.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.6%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
422 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
422 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.229
lg avg .295 ▼−.066vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
220 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
422 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
422 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.5 mphvs his norm —
1660 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 39.6%→38.3%signal88 K — K% 39.6% (signal) tempered to career ~35.7% → projected 38.3% over ~60 remaining…
xERA 2.05signal2.05 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.05 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal0.94 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 0.94 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rostershallow88 K ROS, 2.05 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.