week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekBUY
————————
Jacob Misiorowski
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Misiorowski is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP-driven.
His ERA is 1.65, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. His BABIP-against is .243 — 52 points below the league average of .295 — and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 140. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 2.19, still dominant but not as extraordinary. His strikeout rate is elite at 39.6%, and his walk rate is below league average at 7.0%. His xwOBA allowed is .236, and both hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed are well below league. The skill is real, but the ERA is flattered by unsustainably good luck on batted balls. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.87
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.19 is 0.54 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.236
lg avg .315 ▼−.079trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 200 TBF
xERA2.19
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.91trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 200 TBF
ERA1.65
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.45too early to trust
NOISE71 / 200 IP
Strikeout %39.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL273 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
lg avg .295 ▼−.052too early to trust
NOISE140 / 800 BIP