week 19
this weekHOLD
last week—
Cade Povich
data as of August 5, 2026·week 19
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.34); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 28ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 1–2SV 0
Povich is a hold — league-average skills, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 28 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.6%—−7.0% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.34)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
62 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA5.34
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.24vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA5.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm −7.0% ▼
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.1% norm — expect it to rise.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
304 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.6%→19.6%signal28 K — K% 14.6% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 19.6% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 5.34noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.34 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 19 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop28 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.