week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Cade Povich
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.69); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Povich is a hold — league average, and nothing is moving.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.69)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 200 TBF
xERA4.69
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 200 TBF
ERA4.38
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
37 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
160 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.1% norm — expect it to fall.
160 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
116 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
160 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
160 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
611 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→19.8%signal0 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 19.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.69noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.69 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 19 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.