MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gunnar Henderson
647 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Gunnar Henderson

BAL·SS
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL on September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.314); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .199R 5RBI 5SB 1

Henderson is a hold — league average across the board

His expected wOBA is .314, a single point off the league average of .315, and 647 plate appearances is well past the sample needed to trust it. His actual wOBA is .307, close enough that no luck story runs in either direction. The contact numbers are the same story: 89.2 mph average exit velocity against a league average of 89.0, a 42.8% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and a barrel rate of 6.9% that sits just under league. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and swing decisions are all within a point or two of average. Nothing here is unstable, and nothing is out of line. This is the level. There is no edge to buy and no reason to sell. Hold. A 1 HR / 5 R / 5 RBI / 1 SB / .199 AVG line makes him a deep-league streamer only — hold, but drop-tier.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.9%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~10.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.314)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
437 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
437 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
437 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.314
.314*
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —
647 / 160 PA
wOBA.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
647 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
21.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
647 / 60 PA
Walk %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
647 / 120 PA
BABIP.251
norm.251*
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm −.068 ▼BABIP is below his ~.319 norm — expect it to rise.
437 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
647 / 50 PA
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
647 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.9%→8.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) lifted to career ~10.4% → projected 8.0%.
BABIP 0.251→0.263 regressednoise.199 AVG — BABIP 0.251 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.277 (xBA 0.241) → 0.263.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~45 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~45 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (6 in 59 G) over ~45 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups