MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gunnar Henderson
702 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Gunnar Henderson

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.322); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Henderson is a hold — league average, with a nudge upward.

His expected wOBA is .322, .007 above the league average of .315, and 702 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .313, sitting almost exactly on the league line, so there is no luck stat inflating the surface and none dragging it down. The interesting part is the direction: his expected wOBA has stepped up across the sample, and the contact numbers back the move — 89.2 mph average exit velocity and a 43.3% hard-hit rate, both a touch above league. His strikeout rate is 22.2%, right at league average, and his walk rate is 9.5%, slightly above. Nothing here is unstable and nothing is out of place. This is a player performing at the level his inputs say he should. Hold. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is a drop-tier tax — hold the résumé, not the roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.7%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~10.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.322)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
469 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.3%
43.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
469 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
469 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.322
.322*
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
702 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
702 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.2%
22.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
702 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
702 / 120 PA
BABIP.261
norm.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm −.058 ▼BABIP is below his ~.319 norm — expect it to rise.
469 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
702 / 50 PA
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
702 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.7%→8.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.7% (signal) lifted to career ~10.4% → projected 8.5%.
BABIP 0.261→0.271 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.261 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.285 (xBA 0.246) → 0.271.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (6 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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