MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Bradish
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Kyle Bradish

BAL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.79, 0.31 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.69
ROSK 59ERA 3.79WHIP 1.39W 2–4SV 0

Bradish is a buy — above-average skill with no luck propping it up.

Bradish's expected ERA is 3.79, which is 0.31 below the league average of 4.10, and the sample is past the point where the number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .303, also below league. His actual ERA is not yet stable, but the underlying skill is in the expected metrics. His contact quality is solid, with a hard-hit rate allowed of 36.0%, below the league's 40.0%, and a barrel rate at league average of 8.1%. He strikes out 23.3% of batters, slightly above average, but walks 11.0% — a bit high. The swinging-strike and chase rates are league-average. The xERA has actually stepped down across the sample, confirming the trajectory is real. No luck story here — the skill dictates the call. Buy. 59 K and a 3.79 ERA make Bradish a deep-league asset worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %11.0%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm
  • Strikeout %23.3%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~25.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.79, 0.31 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
297 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
297 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
454 / 200 TBF
xERA3.79
3.79*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.31vs his norm —
454 / 200 TBF
ERA3.61
3.61*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.49vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
107.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
norm23.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
454 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.0%
norm11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
454 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
.291*
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
297 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
454 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
454 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1776 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→23.9%signal59 K — K% 23.3% (signal) lifted to career ~25.4% → projected 23.9% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 3.79signal3.79 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.79 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.0% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep59 K ROS, 3.79 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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