MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Bradish
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Kyle Bradish

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xERA 4.48 +0.38 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66
ROSK 0ERA 4.35WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 0

Bradish is a sell — the expected ERA is climbing, not falling.

His expected ERA is 4.48, a bit more than a third of a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. What makes it hard to write off as noise is the direction: xERA has stepped up across the sample. The underlying numbers agree there is no bad-luck story to excuse it. He walks 10.5% of batters against a league average of 8.0%, and his walk rate is past the sample where it becomes trustworthy. His strikeout rate sits at 21.2%, just under league, so he is not missing bats hard enough to cover the free passes. His expected wOBA allowed of .324 is above league too. The skill is below league and nothing unstable is disguising it. Sell. 0 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.44 WHIP rest of the way says streaming-only; drop him and find the wins elsewhere.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.2%—−4.2% ▼vs his ~25.4% career norm
  • Walk %10.5%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.48 +0.38 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
454 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
454 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
669 / 200 TBF
xERA4.48
4.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —
669 / 200 TBF
ERA4.12
4.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.2%
norm21.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −4.2% ▼
669 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
669 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
.313*
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
454 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
669 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
669 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
2629 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.2%→22.2%signal0 K — K% 21.2% (signal) lifted to career ~25.4% → projected 22.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.48signal4.35 ERA — xERA 4.48 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 65 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.35 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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