MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Anthony Nunez
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Anthony Nunez

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0–0

Nunez is a hold — steady, league-average work on the mound.

His expected ERA is 3.92, roughly in line with the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. His expected wOBA allowed is .305 against a .315 league average, so there is no gap worth buying or selling. The strikeout rate is 25.9%, above the 22.0% league mark, but the walk rate is 10.2%, also above league — the two roughly cancel. His swinging-strike rate of 15.8% and chase rate of 36.3% show swing-and-miss stuff, yet the hard-hit rate allowed (40.9%) and barrel rate allowed (6.3%) are right around league, and his expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample. That is a pitcher who is competent without an obvious edge. No inflated BABIP, no run of luck to correct. Hold. A 3.84 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 0 SV is deep-league cover only, so hold as depth rather than chase the profile.

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
believable since Aug 24.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
255 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
3.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
255 / 200 TBF
ERA4.07
4.07*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.03vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
255 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
255 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
15.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
255 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
255 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
993 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→25.5%signal0 K — K% 25.9% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92signal3.84 ERA — xERA 3.92 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep3 SV, 3.84 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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