week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Anthony Nunez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.96); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.72WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 2–3
Nunez is a hold — league average with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 31 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.96)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
105 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
161 / 200 TBF
xERA3.96
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.14vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
161 / 200 TBF
ERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
37.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
161 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
161 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
161 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
161 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
621 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.5%→25.2%signal25 K — K% 25.5% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.2% over ~22 remainin…
xERA 3.96noise3.72 ERA — xERA 3.96 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 6%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.