MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Anthony Nunez
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Anthony Nunez

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.81); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 6ERA 3.77WHIP 1.33W 0–1SV 0–1

Nunez is a hold — the strikeout stuff is real, the results are average.

His expected ERA is 3.81, close enough to the league average of 4.10 that there is no edge to chase in either direction. The swing-and-miss is real and the sample backs it: a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 15.8% swinging-strike rate, and a chase rate of 35.5% are all well above league average and past the point where those numbers become reliable. The problem is the walk rate — 10.9%, nearly three points above league — and that is a number he cannot shake. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the command may be catching up to the stuff. Nothing here is unstable. Nothing here is a buy or a sell. Hold. A deep-league hold at 6 K and 3.77 ERA — streamable in a pinch, not worth chasing as a roster asset.

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.81)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.1%
40.1%*
lg avg 40.0% +0.1%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.7%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
believable since Aug 24.302*
lg avg .315 −.013vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 −0.29vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 −0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to rise.
53.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
25.8%*
lg avg 22.0% +3.8%vs his norm —
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% +2.9%vs his norm —
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
.269*
lg avg .295 −.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league averageexpect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
15.8%*
lg avg 11.0% +4.8%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.5%
35.5%*
lg avg 28.5% +7.0%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +2.1 mphvs his norm —
896 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→25.4%signal6 K — K% 25.8% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81signal3.77 ERA — xERA 3.81 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 10.9% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.77 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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