week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Keegan Akin
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (3.66); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Akin is a hold — league average, nothing to trade on.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.9%—−8.9% ▼vs his ~23.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.66)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.6%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 200 TBF
xERA3.66
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.44vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 200 TBF
ERA5.68
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.58vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
25.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm −8.9% ▼
114 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.2% norm — expect it to rise.
114 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
114 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
114 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
443 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.9%→20.6%signal23 K — K% 14.9% (signal) lifted to career ~23.9% → projected 20.6% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 3.66noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.66 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.