week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Yennier Cano
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Cano is a sell-high — BABIP luck inflates his ERA.
His ERA sits at 2.75, but the foundation is shaky. The key driver is a suppressed BABIP-against of .226 — 69 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 54, so that gap is pure luck, not skill. Strip away the luck and his expected ERA is 3.89, more than a run higher. His strikeout rate is a touch below league average and his hard-hit rate is above league, so the underlying profile does not support an elite ERA. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but the gap between his actual ERA and xERA is already clear. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.14 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%too early to trust
NOISE54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003too early to trust
NOISE74 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21too early to trust
NOISE74 / 200 TBF
ERA2.75
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.35too early to trust
NOISE19.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL74 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%too early to trust
NOISE74 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.226
lg avg .295 ▼−.069too early to trust
NOISE54 / 800 BIP