week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Yennier Cano
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.36 is 1.04 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 0
Cano is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.2%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~23.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.36 is 1.04 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
90 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
90 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
xERA3.36
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
ERA2.32
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.78vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
31 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
126 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −2.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.5% norm — expect it to rise.
126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
485 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.2%→22.7%signal16 K — K% 22.2% (signal) lifted to career ~23.0% → projected 22.7% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 3.36noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.36 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 5.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.