week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Yennier Cano
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.35 is 0.45 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.35WHIP 1.23W 0–0SV 0
Cano is a sell-high — his ERA is riding a BABIP that won't hold.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %5.9%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm
- Strikeout %22.2%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~23.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.35 is 0.45 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
143 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
203 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —
203 / 200 TBF
ERA2.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
203 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
203 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
143 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
203 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
203 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
794 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.2%→22.6%signal0 K — K% 22.2% (signal) lifted to career ~23.0% → projected 22.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35signal3.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.