MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Samuel Basallo
301 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Samuel Basallo

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 5AVG .230R 23RBI 25SB 0

Basallo is a buy — elite contact, earned production.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the season, now at 46.2% — six points above the league average — and his exit velocity sits at 91.5 mph, well above the 89.0 mph mark. Both are based on 199 batted balls, well past the stabilization threshold, so the contact quality is real. His expected wOBA is .341, .026 above league average, and his actual wOBA is .331, tracking close — no luck inflating the line. He does chase at 40.2%, well above the league average of 28.5%, and his swing-and-miss rate is elevated too, meaning strikeouts will be part of the profile. But the contact he makes is quality, and the production is earned. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %13.1%+4.2%vs his ~8.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +2.5 mphvs his norm —
199 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.2%
46.2%*
lg avg 40.0% +6.2%vs his norm —
199 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.1%
norm13.1%*
lg avg 8.0% +5.1%vs his norm +4.2%
199 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.341
believable since May 25.341*
lg avg .315 +.026vs his norm —
301 / 160 PA
wOBA.331
.331*
lg avg .315 +.016vs his norm —
301 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.6%
25.6%*
lg avg 22.0% +3.6%vs his norm —
301 / 60 PA
Walk %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.5% −0.2%vs his norm —
301 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 −.011vs his norm +.054 BABIP is above his ~.230 normexpect it to fall.
199 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
16.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +5.6%vs his norm —
301 / 50 PA
Chase %40.2%
40.2%*
lg avg 28.5% +11.7%vs his norm —
301 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.1%→11.0%signal5 HR — Barrel% 13.1% (signal) tempered to career ~8.9% → projected 11.0%.
BABIP 0.284→0.288 regressednoise.230 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.289 (xBA 0.256) → 0.288.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~176 projected PA.
slugging + lineup25 RBI — his RBI rate over ~176 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 48 G) over ~176 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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