MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Young
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Young

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.32); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.24WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0

Young is a hold — league-average skill, nothing pulling either way

His expected ERA is 4.32, close enough to the league average of 4.10 that there is no story to chase in either direction. The contact numbers back that up: hard-hit rate allowed at 39.4% against a league average of 40.0%, barrel rate allowed at 6.8% against 8.0%, and xwOBA allowed at .319 against .315 — all within a rounding error of average across 669 batters faced, well past the point where those numbers become reliable. The one wrinkle is his expected ERA ticking upward across the sample, so this is not a pitcher trending toward a breakout. It is a pitcher who allows roughly what the league allows. His strikeout and walk rates are a touch worse than average and his chase rate is a touch better. None of it is unstable, and none of it points anywhere. Hold. 0 K and a 4.24 ERA is waiver-tier filler, so hold only as a streaming-only stash you can drop the moment a real arm surfaces.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.9%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~18.0% career norm
  • Walk %9.1%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.32)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.4%
39.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
469 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
469 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
believable since Jun 6.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
669 / 200 TBF
xERA4.32
4.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.22vs his norm —
669 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
3.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
156.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.9%
norm19.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
669 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
norm9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
669 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
469 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
669 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
669 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
2530 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.9%→19.5%signal0 K — K% 19.9% (signal) tempered to career ~18.0% → projected 19.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.32signal4.24 ERA — xERA 4.32 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 43 IP.
BB% 9.1% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.24 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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