MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Young
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Young

BAL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.38); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 9ERA 4.28WHIP 1.37W 1–1SV 0

Young is a hold — league average, nothing unstable either way.

His expected ERA is 4.38, in the same neighborhood if not meaningfully worse than the league average of 4.10, and that number can be trusted over his 605 batters faced. His expected wOBA allowed is .322, nearly on the league average of .315, and his contact metrics split the difference with the league: a 39.1% hard-hit rate and a 6.6% barrel rate sit just under league average. His strikeout rate of 18.5% is below league, but his walk rate of 8.3% is near it, so the plate discipline roughly cancels. The one wrinkle is his xERA stepping up across the sample while his chase rate of 34.1% runs six points above league, and that combination is worth watching even if it has not moved him below average yet. Hold. 9 K and a 4.28 ERA is deep-league streaming-only volume — hold the status quo, but this is no roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~18.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.1%
39.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
437 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
437 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
believable since Jun 6.322*
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
605 / 200 TBF
xERA4.38
4.38*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —
605 / 200 TBF
ERA3.71
3.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
140.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
norm18.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
605 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
605 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.289
.289*
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
437 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
605 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
34.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
605 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
2258 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→18.4%signal9 K — K% 18.5% (signal) tempered to career ~18.0% → projected 18.4% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.38signal4.28 ERA — xERA 4.38 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 43 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.28 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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