MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Young
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Young

BAL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.24); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 40ERA 4.19WHIP 1.38W 2–5SV 0

Young is a hold — league average, no edge either way.

xERA at 4.24 is essentially league average after 363 batters faced — a reliable sample. His expected wOBA allowed (.319) tracks near the .315 league mark. Strikeout rate (18.5%) sits below league average, and his walk rate (8.5%) is a touch above it, but neither is extreme. The xERA trajectory is stepping upward across the sample, which reinforces that this is who he is. There is no luck stat inflating or depressing the line, and the underlying skill metrics don't point in either direction. He's giving you run-of-the-mill innings. If he's on your roster, hold. If not, there's nothing here to chase. Stat line of 40 K, 4.19 ERA over a full ROS makes him a streaming-only hold in 12-team mixed leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~18.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.5%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.24)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
42.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
263 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
263 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
believable since Jun 6.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
363 / 200 TBF
xERA4.24
4.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.14vs his norm —
363 / 200 TBF
ERA3.42
3.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
84.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
norm18.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
363 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
norm8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
363 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
263 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
363 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
363 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
1332 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→18.3%signal40 K — K% 18.5% (signal) tempered to career ~18.0% → projected 18.3% over ~53 remaining…
xERA 4.24signal4.19 ERA — xERA 4.24 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 43 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop40 K ROS, 4.19 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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