MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Albert Suárez

BAL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.51 is 0.97 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.94
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 1–3

Suárez is a sell-high — BABIP luck is hiding the real xERA.

His ERA sits at 3.54, but the number driving that low ERA is not built on skill. His BABIP-against is .244 — 51 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has only 126. That gap is pure luck, and it will regress. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA jumps to 4.51, nearly a full run higher. His strikeout rate is well below league average, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are basically league average — nothing elite to fall back on once the BABIP normalizes. The xERA gap is already 0.97 runs and widening. Sell high. Sell on the 15 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 2-4 W / 1-3 SV line before regression hits; deep-league window.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.8%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~18.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.51 is 0.97 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%
39.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
167 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
4.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
167 / 200 TBF
ERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.8%
norm16.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
167 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +0.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
167 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.244
.244*
lg avg .295 ▼−.051vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
600 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.8%→17.6%signal15 K — K% 16.8% (signal) lifted to career ~18.2% → projected 17.6% over ~31 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.51 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 7.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-3 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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