MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Albert Suárez

BAL·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 27, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–0

Suárez is a hold — league average across the board.

His expected ERA is 4.09, within a hair of the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .311, essentially the same as the league's .315, so nothing in his contact profile points in either direction. The stuff underneath matches: 39.3% hard-hit rate allowed against a 40.0% league average, 7.1% barrels against 8.0%, a walk rate of 7.6% against 8.0%. His strikeout rate is 17.6%, below the league's 22.0%, which caps his upside, but his swinging-strike rate of 11.8% and chase rate of 29.8% are both slightly above league, so there is no collapse hiding in the profile either. There is no luck-driven number distorting the line and no skill gap to exploit. This is early-season data with no baseline or trajectory to lean on, so the read is the simplest one. Hold. A 3.95 ERA / 1.32 WHIP with 0 K is a drop-tier drag — hold as waiver depth only, deep-league streamer at best.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.6%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~18.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.6%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
196 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
196 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
believable since Aug 7.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
262 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
262 / 200 TBF
ERA3.86
3.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
63 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
norm17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
262 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
262 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
196 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
262 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
262 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
970 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→17.9%signal0 K — K% 17.6% (signal) held to career ~18.2% → projected 17.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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