week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Albert Suárez
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Suárez is a sell-high — BABIP luck won't hold.
His ERA sits at 2.61, but that is a surface built on an unsustainably low .190 BABIP-against—95 points below league average and pure noise at 66 balls in play. His expected ERA is 5.00, a 2.39-run gap that regresses toward reality. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate is 11.6%, barely half the league average, and has been stepping down across his appearances. That limits any ceiling when the luck normalizes. The hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are near average, so the batted-ball profile offers no hidden skill. Regression is baked in. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.190 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.00 is 2.39 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL66 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
lg avg .315 ▲+.034too early to trust
NOISE86 / 200 TBF
xERA5.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.90too early to trust
NOISE86 / 200 TBF
ERA2.61
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.49too early to trust
NOISE20.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL86 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.6%too early to trust
NOISE86 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.190
lg avg .295 ▼−.105too early to trust
NOISE66 / 800 BIP