MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jeremiah Jackson
212 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jeremiah Jackson

BAL·2B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60
ROSAVG .241HR 4R 16RBI 26SB 1

Jackson is a sell – his skill is below league and not unlucky.

Jeremiah Jackson's expected wOBA sits at .290 — 25 points below the league average of .315 — and he has over 210 plate appearances, well past the reliability threshold. His actual wOBA matches exactly, so there is no bad-luck story muddying the line. His contact quality is actually near league average: 89.5 mph exit velo, 38.8% hard-hit, 7.9% barrel. But his walk rate is abysmal at 1.9% against an 8.5% league average, while he chases 38.8% of pitches out of the zone. His swinging-strike rate is elevated at 15.4%. That combination of poor plate discipline and aggressive chase keeps his offensive ceiling capped. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, confirming the trajectory. The bat is what it is. Sell. 4 HR, 16 R, 26 RBI, 1 SB, .241 AVG — a deep-league streaming-only option with no ceiling.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.9%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
165 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
165 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
165 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
212 / 160 PA
wOBA.290
believable since Jun 25.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
212 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.8%
19.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
212 / 60 PA
Walk %1.9%
1.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —
212 / 120 PA
BABIP.285
norm.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm −.080 ▼BABIP is below his ~.365 norm — expect it to rise.
165 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
212 / 50 PA
Chase %38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.3%vs his norm —
212 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.9%→7.7%signal4 HR — Barrel% 7.9% (signal) tempered to career ~7.5% → projected 7.7%.
BABIP 0.285→0.286 regressednoise.241 AVG — BABIP 0.285 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.254) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~171 projected PA.
slugging + lineup26 RBI — his RBI rate over ~171 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 52 G) over ~171 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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