MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Leody Taveras
448 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Leody Taveras

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSAVG .206HR 0R 5RBI 5SB 1

Taveras is a sell — the bat is below league and sliding.

His expected wOBA is .271 — 44 points under the league average of .315 — and at 448 plate appearances that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His actual wOBA sits at .284, close enough that there is no bad-luck case hiding a better hitter underneath. The contact is the problem: a 33.3% hard-hit rate against a 40% league mark and a 4.1% barrel rate, less than half the league average, across 291 batted balls. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, so the trend points the same direction as the level. He strikes out 25.9% of the time, above league, with nothing in the walk or chase numbers to offset it. There is no luck story here. Sell. 0 HR / 5 R / 5 RBI / 1 SB / .206 AVG is a drop-tier drag — fade the skill, cut him to streaming-only.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.1%−2.4%vs his ~6.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.3 mph
88.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −0.7 mphvs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% −6.7%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.1%
norm4.1%*
lg avg 8.0% −3.9%vs his norm −2.4%
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.271
believable since May 28.271*
lg avg .315 −.044vs his norm —
448 / 160 PA
wOBA.284
.284*
lg avg .315 −.031vs his norm —
448 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% +3.9%vs his norm —
448 / 60 PA
Walk %8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 8.5% +0.4%vs his norm —
448 / 120 PA
BABIP.285
norm.285*
lg avg .295 −.010vs his norm −.004 BABIP is below his ~.289 normexpect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 11.0% +1.0%vs his norm —
448 / 50 PA
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% +3.4%vs his norm —
448 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.1%→5.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.1% (signal) lifted to career ~6.5% → projected 5.1%.
BABIP 0.285→0.265 regressednoise.206 AVG — BABIP 0.285 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.254 (xBA 0.210) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (6 in 50 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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