week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Rico Garcia
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Garcia is a sell-high — his ERA is a BABIP mirage.
His ERA is 0.71, which looks elite, but it is built on a BABIP-against of .115 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be stable; he has 53. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip that luck out and his expected ERA is 2.24, more than a run and a half higher. He has struck out 31.1% of batters, well above league average, and has held hard-hit balls to 30.2%, but the sample is small — the ERA regression is still coming as BABIP normalizes. Limited data: this call rests on the gap between ERA and xERA, which is too large to ignore. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.115 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.24 is 1.53 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%too early to trust
NOISE53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.239
lg avg .315 ▼−.076too early to trust
NOISE90 / 200 TBF
xERA2.24
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.86too early to trust
NOISE90 / 200 TBF
ERA0.71
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.39too early to trust
NOISE25.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL90 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%too early to trust
NOISE90 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.115
lg avg .295 ▼−.180too early to trust
NOISE53 / 800 BIP