MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Rico Garcia
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Rico Garcia

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.92, 1.18 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.92WHIP 1.22W 0–0SV 0–0

Garcia is a buy — the run prevention is earned, not lucky

His expected ERA is 2.92, a full 1.18 runs below the league average of 4.10, and it is trending down as the sample grows. Nothing fluky is holding that number up. He has allowed a .265 expected wOBA over 265 batters faced, well past the 200 needed for that to be reliable, and his hard-hit rate allowed of 34.1% and barrel rate of 5.2% both sit comfortably under league. The strikeout rate is 25.7%, about four points above average, and a 15.6% swinging-strike rate says that is no accident. His fastball is stable at 95.4 mph and has been ticking upward. Nothing here points to regression. The stuff is real and the results match it. Buy. 0 K / 2.92 ERA / 1.22 WHIP with a 0-0 SV line means this is an asset to add now before the ratio help gets priced in.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.7%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~21.7% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.92, 1.18 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.1%
believable since May 2934.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.265
.265*
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
xERA2.92
2.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.18vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
ERA3.09
3.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.01vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.7%
norm25.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +4.0% ▲
265 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
265 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.210
.210*
lg avg .295 ▼−.085vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
265 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
265 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
997 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.7%→24.0%signal0 K — K% 25.7% (signal) tempered to career ~21.7% → projected 24.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.92signal2.92 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.92 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard3 SV, 2.92 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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