Is Trevor Rogers a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Trevor Rogers's rest-of-season outlook?

xERA 3.60 with a 5.9% walk rate — buy the gap.

week 25

this weekBUY

last weekHOLD

Trevor Rogers

BAL·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Buy stable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.75

ROSK 9ERA 3.60WHIP 1.27W 0–1SV 0

Rogers is a buy — his expected ERA is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 3.60, half a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing on his line is propping it up: his expected wOBA allowed is .294 against a league average of .315. His contact suppression backs it. Batters have hit the ball hard against him just 37% of the time, below the league's 40%, on a sample of 451 batted balls well past where that number stabilizes, and he allows barrels at 6.7% against 8.0%. The one number doing quiet work is his walk rate, 5.9% against a league average of 8%, and his xERA has been stepping down across the season. This is a pitcher whose results match his skill. Buy. 9 K and a 3.60 ERA is a deep-league streamer's asset, not a must-add — acquire only where you need the arm.

VS His Norm

Walk %5.9%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
Strikeout %21.9%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~22.9% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league — production is earned

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

451 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed6.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —

451 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.294

lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —

629 / 200 TBF

xERA3.60

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —

629 / 200 TBF

ERA4.15

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

151.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %21.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

629 / 70 TBF

Walk %5.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −2.8% ▼

629 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.301

lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

451 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.6%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —

629 / 60 TBF

Chase %34.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —

629 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.8 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —

2440 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 21.9%→22.1%signal9 K — K% 21.9% (signal) held to career ~22.9% → projected 22.1% over ~12 remaining IP.

xERA 3.60signal3.60 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.60 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…

BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdeep9 K ROS, 3.60 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons