MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor Rogers
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Trevor Rogers

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.75
ROSK 0ERA 3.60WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Rogers is a buy — his expected ERA is half a run better than league.

His expected ERA is 3.60, half a run below the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the sample — the skill is not just real, it is trending in the right direction. He has faced 699 batters, well past the 200 needed before that number becomes reliable. The contact quality backs it up: his hard-hit rate allowed is 36.2% against a league average of 40.0%, and his barrel rate allowed is 6.8% against 8.0%. His expected wOBA allowed of .293 sits 22 points below league average. The clearest separator is his control: he walks 5.6% of batters against a league average of 8.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 13.0% is well above league. There is no luck story here because none is needed. Buy. 0 K and 0-0 W cap the ceiling, but a 3.60 ERA / 1.24 WHIP arm is a deep-league asset worth stashing now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.6%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.5%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~22.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.60, 0.50 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
500 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
500 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.293
believable since May 29.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —
699 / 200 TBF
xERA3.60
3.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —
699 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
169.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
699 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
norm5.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −3.1% ▼
699 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
500 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
699 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
699 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
93.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
2689 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.6%signal0 K — K% 22.5% (signal) held to career ~22.9% → projected 22.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.60signal3.60 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.60 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.60 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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