MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor Rogers
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Trevor Rogers

BAL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.27); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 45ERA 4.21WHIP 1.36W 1–3SV 0

Rogers is a hold — league average with no edge.

His expected ERA is 4.27 — essentially league average — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His strikeout rate is 18.1%, below the 22% league average, and his walk rate is right at league average. The underlying contact metrics are similarly neutral: hard-hit rate allowed at 39.5%, barrel rate at 6.8%, and expected wOBA allowed at .320 all sit within a hair of league norms. His fastball velocity is average. Notably, his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, meaning the skill is moving in the wrong direction. There is no luck story dragging the line down or inflating it — BABIP-against is not mentioned, so no adjustment is warranted. This is a pitcher who is what the numbers say: roughly average, with nothing unstable to exploit. Hold. With a 45 K / 4.21 ERA / 1.36 WHIP projection, he's a deep-league streamer, not a must-hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−4.8% ▼vs his ~22.9% career norm
  • Walk %8.1%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.27)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.5%
39.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
281 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
281 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
believable since May 29.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
382 / 200 TBF
xERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —
382 / 200 TBF
ERA4.48
4.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
90.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −4.8% ▼
382 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
382 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
281 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
382 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
382 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
1502 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→19.7%signal45 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.9% → projected 19.7% over ~53 remaining IP.
xERA 4.27signal4.21 ERA — xERA 4.27 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 49 IP.
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop45 K ROS, 4.21 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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