454 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Coby Mayo
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.336, +0.021 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Mayo is a buy — the contact is climbing and the results are earned.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %13.5%—+3.4% ▲vs his ~10.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.336, +0.021 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
275 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
275 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +3.4% ▲
275 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
454 / 160 PA
wOBA.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
454 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —
454 / 60 PA
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
454 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm +.012 ▲BABIP is above his ~.267 norm — expect it to fall.
275 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
454 / 50 PA
Chase %31.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
454 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.5%→12.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 13.5% (signal) tempered to career ~10.1% → projected 12.1%.
BABIP 0.279→0.286 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.290 (xBA 0.235) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 47 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.