246 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Coby Mayo
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.58 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 5AVG .193R 19RBI 20SB 1
Mayo is a sell — the skill is below league and trending worse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.1%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~10.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
144 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %50.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
144 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
144 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
246 / 160 PA
wOBA.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
246 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
246 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
246 / 120 PA
BABIP.235
lg avg .295 ▼−.060vs his norm −.032 ▼BABIP is below his ~.267 norm — expect it to rise.
144 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
246 / 50 PA
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
246 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.1%→10.5%signal5 HR — Barrel% 11.1% (signal) tempered to career ~10.1% → projected 10.5%.
BABIP 0.235→0.251 regressednoise.193 AVG — BABIP 0.235 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.255 (xBA 0.212) → 0.251.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~167 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~167 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 47 G) over ~167 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.