Rest of Season Projection
CobyCategoryMatt
10HR →13
36R →42
38RBI ←32
2SB ←0
.210AVG →.228
Current Season
CobyCategoryMatt
6HR ←2
18R →27
19RBI →21
1SB ←0
.199AVG →.234
What Each Player's System Trusts
Coby Mayo
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.305)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Matt Chapman
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.269 below league with no luck excuse
Coby Mayo: 10 HR / 36 R. Matt Chapman: 13 HR / 42 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).