248 PA · week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
————————
Matt Chapman
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Chapman is a sell — below-league skill with no luck excuse.
His expected wOBA is .270, .045 below the league average of .315, and that number is stable after 248 plate appearances. His actual wOBA is .296, still below league, so the line is not being punished by bad luck — his BABIP is not elevated or suppressed enough to explain the gap. His contact quality is the root of the problem: 87.4 mph exit velo, 33.5% hard-hit rate, and 5.4% barrels, all well below league averages. The strikeout rate is league average and the walk rate is slightly above, but those don't compensate for the weak contact. The xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, making the trend uglier. There is no unlucky slump waiting to correct. Sell.
Sell
med0.64
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL167 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL167 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL167 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 160 PA
wOBA.296
lg avg .315 ▼−.019trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 60 PA
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 120 PA
BABIP.303
lg avg .295 ▲+.008too early to trust
NOISE167 / 800 BIP