Is Matt Chapman a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Matt Chapman's rest-of-season outlook?

88 mph exit velo, 6.6% barrels — power's gone quiet.

352 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Matt Chapman

SF·3B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

ON THE 60-DAY IL

Sell stable xwOBA 0.286 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61

ROSHR 1AVG .218R 5RBI 4SB 0

Chapman is a sell — the bat is below league and dropping.

His expected wOBA is .286, well below the league average of .315, and it has been stepping down across the sample rather than recovering. This is not a case of a hitter getting robbed by the bounces: his actual wOBA sits at .309, right in line with the expected number, so there is no hidden luck to give back or improve the picture. The contact metrics agree. He averages 88.2 mph off the bat, a tick under the league mark, with a 35.8% hard-hit rate and 6.6% barrels — both below league. He walks more than average, which is nice, but the bat speed and quality just aren't there. A .286 xwOBA over 352 plate appearances is a reliable number, and it says he is who the numbers say he is. Sell. A 1 HR / 5 R / 4 RBI / 0 SB / .218 AVG down the stretch is a drop, streaming-only — fade the name, not the ballpark.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.6%—−6.6% ▼vs his ~13.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.286 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo88.2 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —

229 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —

229 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −6.6% ▼

229 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.286

lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —

352 / 160 PA

wOBA.309

lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —

352 / 200 PA

Strikeout %23.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —

352 / 60 PA

Walk %10.5%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —

352 / 120 PA

BABIP.293

lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm −.002 ▼BABIP is below his ~.295 norm — expect it to rise.

229 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —

352 / 50 PA

Chase %26.4%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —

352 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.6%→9.7%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.6% (signal) lifted to career ~13.2% → projected 9.7%.

BABIP 0.293→0.270 regressednoise.218 AVG — BABIP 0.293 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.261 (xBA 0.210) → 0.270.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.

slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 59 G) over ~44 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons