Is Jackson Holliday a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jackson Holliday's rest-of-season outlook?

33% hard-hit with 87 mph exit velo — light contact.

354 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekNO CALL

Jackson Holliday

BAL·2B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

new call as of October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.293 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Holliday is a sell — the contact is light and the line is honest.

His expected wOBA is .293, .022 below the league average of .315, and with 354 plate appearances he has cleared the sample needed to trust it. His actual wOBA is .284, a hair under that, so no bad-luck story is dragging the line down. The contact quality backs up the number: 87.0 mph average exit velocity against 89.0 league, a 33.1% hard-hit rate against 40%, and a 6.4% barrel rate against 8%. None of that is a batting-average problem that will bounce back. The one ragged thread is that the expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample rather than holding. A 23.7% strikeout rate sits just over league and caps the contact profile. This is the level he is at — the bat is light and the production tracks it. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG projection is waiver fodder — drop him and stream the roster spot.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.4%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~7.9% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.293 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —

236 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —

236 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −1.5% ▼

236 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.293

lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —

354 / 160 PA

wOBA.284

lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —

354 / 200 PA

Strikeout %23.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —

354 / 60 PA

Walk %9.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

354 / 120 PA

BABIP.285

lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm −.000 ▼BABIP is below his ~.285 norm — expect it to rise.

236 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

354 / 50 PA

Chase %26.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —

354 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.4%→7.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) lifted to career ~7.9% → projected 7.1%.

BABIP 0.285→0.265 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.285 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.257 (xBA 0.236) → 0.265.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 12 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons